Falling Battery Prices ....

ozz93666

Member
Joined
Feb 22, 2017
Messages
341
Here's an interesting chart I stumbled upon !!


image_kzaknc.jpg


Solar panels also show a similar curve!
 
My actual cost (no including pack building labor) has been $307/kwh so far (2018/2019) buying 'good' (95% original specs) used batteries from Alarm Hookup and similar.
If you add in the 30% US Federal tax credit - it goes down to $215/kwh in theory. Unfortunately, I don't make enough money to get credit for the entire 30% tax credit in 1 year... so it s a multi-year cost savings game.
 
OffGridInTheCity said:
My actual cost (no including pack building labor) has been $307/kwh so far (2018/2019) buying 'good' (95% original specs) used batteries from Alarm Hookup and similar.
That seems a high price for used , you need to pressure your supplier for a reduction... New cells can be bought for less....

For comparison a fairly high capacity NEW18650 holds 10Whrs ... 100 would hold 1KW ...$2 each gives a price of $200/KwHr on the chart ...

We are reaching the point where re using is not sensible ....

Look at the price in 2010 or even 2014 ... then it made good sense ....
 
The $100/kwh is manufacturer direct pricing in bulk (multi-million cells). We will not see that pricing at retail for quite some time, if ever. And I don't believe that $100/kwh includes the cost of pack assembly or anything, just the raw cells, correct?
 
Generic said:
The $100/kwh is manufacturer direct pricing in bulk (multi-million cells). We will not see that pricing at retail for quite some time, if ever. And I don't believe that $100/kwh includes the cost of pack assembly or anything, just the raw cells, correct?

This chart is not for bulk (million cell) buying ....

The tests done on Queen batteries by a member here give a price of $200/Kw on purchases of around a 100 cells delivered to your door , and that's what the graph shows $200 in 2019 ... At this price reusing is not sensible....

No reason to assume the graph is inaccurate and that prices will not continue to fall ....

We must not get stuck in a rut ! This enterprise may have been worthwhile 5 years ago , but sooner or latter we have to admit the truth ...

I look at the powerwall I made 18 monthsago , and wish I had spent the money on new BIG cells
 
RikH said:
Here: 200Ah LiFePo4 cells for $ 250 kWh.

https://www.aliexpress.com/item/4000001219462.html?spm=a2g0s.8937460.0.0.e2b22e0eR6f4Dl

When I found these 1,5 month ago they went for 210. So no price dropping in this case.

That's still a good price ... they are a different chemistry ...they have life of3,000 cycles at 80% DOD (depth of discharge )

Li -ion would only give about 1,000cycles at 80% DOD ... to get 3,000 cycles you would have to go to 70% DOD ( to be accurate , only use 70% of rated capacity , charge no higher than 3.97V/cell) ...

So if you want same capacity for same life you can get away with 10% less LiFe , that must account for the price difference . That and the fact they are in demand for cars ... perfect for replacing car battery , 4s gives the right voltage.

Edit ... on closer inspection those cells work out at less than $195/KwHr fantastic price ....... one cell is 3.2V x 200A = 640W x 16 = 10.2Kw hrs for $2000 ... then more cash discounts and free shipping!! ...

that same company cells 18650s at less than $2 .. (2600mAh) ...= $208/Kwhr
 
The price I'm seeing is $ 2,.498 for 16 pcs. But still.. For these prices we can't fiddle around with used cells.


image_abctoz.jpg
 
RikH said:
The price I'm seeing is $ 2,.498 for 16 pcs. But still.. For these prices we can't fiddle around with used cells.


image_abctoz.jpg
I clicked on your link and got this page ....https://www.aliexpress.com/item/4000001219462.html?spm=a2g0s.8937460.0.0.e2b22e0eR6f4Dl

$
1998 for 16 ... and another $11 off , discount vouchers ...and free shipping ... I do live in Thailand ...

Your recent price jump is probably due to US taxes ... didn't trump recently increase them for li cells ????

I'm very tempted to buy some , the price per cell is almost the same for 8 ....

Ah ... I see you're in Netherlands ... probably EU taxes

Li Fe is much more suited for solar powerwall ... the cycle life is dependent on depth of discharge , it does not like going low ...

The cycle life of li -ion is dependent on how high you charge ... it does not like going high ....

This means you can keep Li Fe fully charged , and if you don't need to fully discharge you have extended life greatly ...

You cannot do that with Li-ion ... it does not like being charged to 4.2V , you will only get 400 cycles ... 3.93V is best (3500cycles) but then you only get 65% of rated capacity , and an unexpected cloudy day could catch you out , and leave you short of power ...
 
I agree with you, better to go lifepo4 from the beginning. And yes, I changed Netherlands to Thailand and then your price popped up. Guess due to higher transportation cost and more government robbery.
 
ozz93666 said:
OffGridInTheCity said:
My actual cost (no including pack building labor) has been $307/kwh so far (2018/2019) buying 'good' (95% original specs) used batteries from Alarm Hookup and similar.
That seems a high price for used , you need to pressure your supplier for a reduction... New cells can be bought for less....

For comparison a fairly high capacity NEW18650 holds 10Whrs ... 100 would hold 1KW ...$2 each gives a price of $200/KwHr on the chart ...

We are reaching the point where re using is not sensible ....

Look at the price in 2010 or even 2014 ... then it made good sense ....

The $307/kwh is for a completeworking battery - including busbar, fuses, solder, tools, BMS, holders, chargers, etc etc -not just the cost of cells. The cells themselves were aprox $200/kwh which is $1.59/cell in my case.
 
Daarom noem ik onze overheid, de roverheid... :D
That's why i call our government the roberment :D
 
$100/kWh by 2026 - is this excluding Tesla for some particular reason along with the top 3 largest cell manufacturers ? 2026 Tesla is likely going to be around $70 or lower and all depende on commodity prices and not the battery tech as the build costs is a small fraction of the cell cost in this timeframe.

The $ per kWh pricing does not take into account cycle life so is pretty much useless to actually work out if a cell is worth using or even viable. Sort of like saying how much a 400hp car costs, useless measure of technology.


Has anyone ever seen a comparison chart of $/kWh on a throughput basis (i.e. cell X has 20Wh capacity, lasts 800 cycles : 800 x 20 = 1.6kWh and cost say $1.2 each so $0.75/kWh throughput life cost)

This would be a lot more interesting, for example 2.2Ah 3.6V 18650 cell (say 7.9Wh for simplicity) and if a good cell lasts 1200 cycles 7.9x1200 = 9.5kWh life and if it cost $1.5 per cell then that would be $0.16/kWh throughput life cost.
 
completelycharged said:
This would be a lot more interesting, for example 2.2Ah 3.6V 18650 cell (say 7.9Wh for simplicity) and if a good cell lasts 1200 cycles 7.9x1200 = 9.5kWh life and if it cost $1.5 per cell then that would be $0.16/kWh throughput life cost.


It's almost what the running cost is vs purchase cost. Just like buying a car that has more HP but the mpg is your running cost. That's why paying over $1.50 per cell isn't worth it if it comes out to $.16/kwh if your local utility is only $.12/kwh then you will most likely be ahead if you were just on grid.

The one thing is that even though the batteries do degrade over time, it's not as if after 1200 cycles it will not be able to produce anymore, but maybe produce at a lower capacity.
 
not2bme said:
completelycharged said:
This would be a lot more interesting, for example 2.2Ah 3.6V 18650 cell (say 7.9Wh for simplicity) and if a good cell lasts 1200 cycles 7.9x1200 = 9.5kWh life and if it cost $1.5 per cell then that would be $0.16/kWh throughput life cost.


It's almost what the running cost is vs purchase cost. Just like buying a car that has more HP but the mpg is your running cost. That's why paying over $1.50 per cell isn't worth it if it comes out to $.16/kwh if your local utility is only $.12/kwh then you will most likely be ahead if you were just on grid.

The one thing is that even though the batteries do degrade over time, it's not as if after 1200 cycles it will not be able to produce anymore, but maybe produce at a lower capacity.

Agree! My grid is .115c/kwh and I'mcurrently running a22yr ROI!! Of course grid will only go up and I live remotely so the overdue Oregon coastal earthquake 'could' create a Puerto Rico type situation... but cold reality? DIY Powerwalldoes not pay for itself in pure $ at this point. HOWEVER - its is a LOT OF FUN, a great hobby, etc to be producing megwatts of power each year :D
 
Tesla is already down to 100$ at the cell level.

The goal is 100$/kWh at the pack level, which includes the connections+inverter+cooling.
 
I expect to come in well below $100/kWh. With almost 2000 usable cells so far (avg. 2278 mAh), my current cost per cell is $0.30, or about $30 / kWh. All used laptop packs - $1/lb. I expect cell cost would be much lower if I loosened my standards on what I call a "keeper".
 
RikH said:
Here: 200Ah LiFePo4 cells for $ 250 kWh.

https://www.aliexpress.com/item/4000001219462.html?spm=a2g0s.8937460.0.0.e2b22e0eR6f4Dl

When I found these 1,5 month ago they went for 210. So no price dropping in this case.

In the meantime I've questionedEco Power Group about these batteries since Ali seller BLS claims this is the manufacturer of the cells. I asked them if that was right and indeed these cells are produced buy them. But: they are B level batteries and on my question what that means they answered "B level product means damage in appearance, insufficient capacity, or long-term inventory battery". So it isn't that cheap after all. Price from Eco Power group is $ 0.8 per Ah which is still a reasonable price in my opinion. It is FOB price though...
 
The dollar has nowadays one stripe instead of two.
Go with that flow.
I mean the dollar against the euro goes up and down.
One time you pay 90 euro for 100 dollars and the second time you pay 110 euro for 100 dollars.
Just saying
The time for 0.22fl is a long time ago, the same with 200 euro for 100 dollar.
take the british pond,,,,what happened to it the last 5 years, or gold the last 20 years....and your paycheck?


BLS...if you look up there "partners" you will see some cheap (fake?) sites, after some trouble.


http://ecopowerpack.com/show.asp?id=97
Link was down btw
 
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