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Smart/predictive home energy management system?
#1
Has anyone tried building a smart/predictive home energy management system?  As a human with reasonable intelligence, I can easily predict days ahead when my batteries will run dry, when they are likely to overflow, if I should switch off the powerwall in the evening to have enough energy the following rainy day, if I should delay charging the PHEV or just use night grid power, etc.  I'm thinking it's totally doable to have a raspberry manage it optimally for me, perhaps using AI / machine learning, but I'm not quite sure what libraries/packages are available to get me started.

It would have the following input data:
* Hourly energy generation data for past year
* Hourly energy consumption data for past year
* 2 days of hourly weather forecast of reasonable accuracy
* 10 days of rough weather forecast of questionable accuracy
* Real time power into/out of the grid
* Real time charge status of my Powerwall
* Expensive grid rate between 7am~11pm, cheap night power between 11pm ~ 7am
And various remote relays can be controlled to switch on/off the powerwall, EV charging, hot water heater, well pump, etc.
Korishan and OffGridInTheCity like this post
Modular PowerShelf using 3D printed packs.  40kWh and growing.
https://secondlifestorage.com/showthread.php?tid=6458
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#2
I run an RPi here, more for monitoring, not load switching.
Daromer has a complex setup running too & an iso you could look at.
Also have a look at "solar spy", discussion by author here: https://whrl.pl/RfmB5g he's doing some predictive stuff, it takes a while to load.

You might also have it log/calculate:
- typical seasonal solar kWhrs input expected eg adjust for spring/summer/autumn/winter sun hours
- energy so far in today
- typical base loads & values of switchable loads
- hot water tank top & middle temps
You could use crontasks & php
Using a database you could run a Predicted & Actual available kWhrs numbers updated every few mins.
Bit of calculation you could prioritize (or cycle through, etc) switching on/off + adjust run times of larger loads.
Make it display on a web page with a few buttons for easy adjustments, eg top ups, "run the EV charger tonight on cheap off peak", "charge the powerwall tonight from cheap off peak", etc.
Running off solar, DIY & electronics fan :-)
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#3
Thanks, but looking at the "solar spy" source code, it basically relies on data from 2 external web sites to estimate his/her PV production... I want a lot more than that.

For humans, it's just basic intuition, but there are so many aspects(parameters) for a program to consider to estimate both production and consumption(s). Eg. "typical base load" varies between 500W and 3000W, depending on the season (sunrise/sunset), day of the week, time of day, the outside temperature, sunshine, stored heat in the walls, wind speed, humidity (for A/C), etc. My traditional approach would be to figure out each component individually, db lookup / interpolate from past data, weigh their contribution and put out one final number.
Solar production estimation is equally complicated in my case as I have 9 arrays of varying sizes and angle. And I have one huge tree that throws a travelling shadow late in the afternoon, depending on the season.

I was hoping that there'd be a smarter, more automated machine learning system that I can just dump all the past data on (incl historical weather data), and it'll figure out the relations by itself, and make predictions given a weather forecast. Most importantly, continually learning as it compares predictions vs actual result.
Modular PowerShelf using 3D printed packs.  40kWh and growing.
https://secondlifestorage.com/showthread.php?tid=6458
Reply
#4
I haven't heard of a system that does this all for you.
I think Tesla's battery management algorithm does some of this but it'll be closed source, etc. Might help to read up on what/how it does that.
Overall, my thinking is there are too many different systems, manufacturers & models out there for a one-size-fits-all solution commercially.
Similarly open source & DIY tend to make something specific to their needs/gear.
Seems like you might have to dive in & DIY!
Running off solar, DIY & electronics fan :-)
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#5
I've found something interesting:

TensorFlow, by the Google Brain Team
https://www.tensorflow.org/tutorials/est...sted_trees

The example feeds (teaches) the system the Titanic passenger data (survived or not, age, sex, fare, class, deck, etc), and then makes a survival prediction for a [hypothetical] passenger that was not on the teaching list.
I think I can adapt this by feeding my past generation data (kWh produced, date/time, weather, temperature), and then let it make a prediction using the weather forecast.
Do the same for consumption, and I'm 90% where I want to be.
Modular PowerShelf using 3D printed packs.  40kWh and growing.
https://secondlifestorage.com/showthread.php?tid=6458
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