Are the new Tesla/Panasonic 20700 Batteries the death of the 18650s?

Mudvet

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So Tesla has started with the production at its Gigafactory. They will eventually pump out as much GWH storage capacity yearly as the whole world did last year.

Will the rest follow suit and switch to 2070too?

We can only applaud cheaper batteries and they come as the result of increased production numbers.

My guess is that we will see everything move to 2070...
 
Mudvet said:
Will the rest follow suit and switch to 2070too?

My guess is that we will see everything move to 2070...

I doubt it ......

Theres a lot of manufacturing capacity for existing formats, that's going take years to write off.

There's a massive amount of equipment using existing formats, they'll need replacement packs at some point.

Simply being a "better" product doesn't guarantee commercial success and/or worldwide adoption.

Betamax ........
 
Sean said:
Mudvet said:
Will the rest follow suit and switch to 2070too?

My guess is that we will see everything move to 2070...

I doubt it ......

Theres a lot of manufacturing capacity for existing formats, that's going take years to write off.

There's a massive amount of equipment using existing formats, they'll need replacement packs at some point.

Simply being a "better" product doesn't guarantee commercial success and/or worldwide adoption.

Betamax ........

I agree, it will take several years or even decades for the 18650 to disappear.

But then what will happen in that time? A new cell standard will come along.

There will always be a standard size li-ion battery we get to play with. Standard size batteries are sold as a commodity product, thus they compete for the lowest price. As long as companies keep making products that are more budget or safety friendly, (budget laptops, power tools, flashlights, vape pens) there will always be a standard cell to do it. Even if the 18650 goes by the waysideand disappears, i believe it will simply be replaced with another standard.

In fact, I recently got a new laptop and low and behold, the laptop battery WAS removable AND it contained four 18650 cells inside. This proves that just because the industry is moving towards a lipo only world, 18650s still hasaplace in cheaper laptops (the kind of laptops most people buy in the first place). So no, 18650 isn't going away for awhile, but when it will be replaced, it will be replaced with some other standard. And with this standard cell we will still be able to build powerwalls, ebike batteries, EV batteries, whatever we want.

In other words no, the 18650 or DIY powerwall dream will not disappear with the emergence of non-standard cells. It will simply change to adopt a new standard (like 2070 you mentioned).

Those are just my two cents.
 
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