Global (solar panel) PV module prices collapse

ozz93666

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Global PV module prices collapse

The predicted fall in global PV module prices appears to have already begun, with PVInsights and EnergyTrend reporting average prices in the $0.27-$0.37/W range....

Current U.S. prices are higher, due to new tariffs ...
However prices appear to be falling in the United States as well. Leni John, head of procurement at developer Strata Solar, estimates that U.S. module prices have fallen 5-10%
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/06/21/global-pv-module-prices-collapse/

This collapse is mostly due to change in domestic chinese subsidies , but also western politicians imposing regulations and tariffs...

I see no bottom to this market ... Unlike 18650's which contain valuable commodities , Cu , Co, Li ,of over $1/cell which keeps their price high...

Panels are mostly SAND the only significant commodity cost is silver about one ounce per KW of panels ...$15 ... that's $0.015/Watt...

There is lo reason they cannot drop to $0.1/W ( but I doubt they will)which would completely revolutionise the energy sector.
 
Thanks for the info, ozz.

PVInsights is not the only company reporting this information. Taiwan-based EnergyTrend is also reporting average prices from $0.295 per watt to $0.367 per watt, as of Wednesday, depending on the type of module. However EnergyTrend is seeing these numbers as the result of a much steeper weekly fall, describing price falls of up to 12.5%.

Wait, how is that a drop in prices? Going from $0.295 per watt to $0.367 per watt is an increase. Unless it's a typo.


Interesting:
However Mr. John notes module price declines have not fully offset the impact of Section 201 tariffs, which he says are still affecting the market. By no means are we back to where we were prior to the tariff being implemented, Mr. John told pv magazine.
 
More protection. Consumers can't be given the ability to generate cheap power at home, on their own. Hell, they might even make commercial use of the power and undermine the whole economy, more protection.

I read an article about a solar plant in China where there is virtually nobody inside the plant, just loading the raw materials one end and taking the panels out the other, unfortunately or fortunately the world needs a lot lot more of these plants, wherever they are located. The real win is what the cheaper power allows the global economy to achieve.

If solar gets even close to $0.10/W the battery market will be 100x or more what it is today. The revolution is in what that energy pricing point allows to be achieved in conjunction with automation. The energy market (battery / solar) today is like the PC market in the late 80's, only just starting.... electric flight next up, first global electric sea freight route 5-8yrs, rail conversion to electric charge at station and subsequent expansion of rail, etc.. Amazing times ahead.
 
Good thing I didn't jump on some panels I saw on Craigslist at $0.56/W!
 
Mazlem said:
Good thing I didn't jump on some panels I saw on Craigslist at $0.56/W!

$0.56 is still a very good price , those prices quoted above are without shipping and middlemen ...what big purchasers pay buying GWs at a time ....

There has been a lot of politics behind the PVindustry... I believe US politicians decades ago made a secret deal , gifting this whole multi billion $ industry to the chinese ,who now have an almost complete monopoly...

As compleatlycharge said"virtually nobody inside the plants, just loading the raw materials one end and taking the panels out the other..." once a moderate investment in the machinery is made , the manufacturer can produce panels atless than $0.1/W

Also evidence of the Chines cartel is stopping any rival system .... A new US company 'Nanosolar'was just about to start production of printable solar panels , much cheaper to produce,(GWsproductionper year) , this would have had a big impact on the sector... they mysteriously went bankrupt before production started, all the machinery was bought at auction by an unknown buyer and presumably scrapped , because it isn't producing panels anywhere.

I think this iswhat's behind trumps tariffs , he's trying to redress these back room deals done by previouseUS leaders
 
Korishan said:
Thanks for the info, ozz.

PVInsights is not the only company reporting this information. Taiwan-based EnergyTrend is also reporting average prices from $0.295 per watt to $0.367 per watt, as of Wednesday, depending on the type of module. However EnergyTrend is seeing these numbers as the result of a much steeper weekly fall, describing price falls of up to 12.5%.

Wait, how is that a drop in prices? Going from $0.295 per watt to $0.367 per watt is an increase. Unless it's a typo.

It's the range of the average price, depending on module type (probably mono or poly, size, shape...), and that's seemingly 12.5% lower than the range was last week :)

Prices in Germany when buying individual panels are at or just below 1 EUR per Watt. Not sure how cheap they get when you're buying lots of them but there is certainly room for improvement, i.e. cheaper prices. And I believe the prices will fall and I appreciate it when it happens but there will be a threshold that prices won't fall below. While production of the panels can be super cheap as it is mostly sand and some aluminium for the frame and some compound material there will still be logistics involved (storage, transport, ...) and as of now there is still research going on. Recently we saw a rise in efficiency, for example, and there are probably more topics to be researched. This has be be paid for as well.

But certainly, we live in great times and with great oppurtunities. Massive changes in the power market are already happening and this is only going to continue as there is just one possible way: Forward!
 
As PV prices fall, the ancillary items become the cost drivers. I bought 8 kW worth of panels a few weeks ago at $.15/w, and found that wiring and especially brackets nearly doubled my per-panel price.

I just met with a local off-grid company, and they told me that lithium batteries are still cost-prohibitive to all but the bleeding-edge early adopters. Thus, they still focus on lead-acid, which still isn't anywhere near cheap outside of the DIY crowd. In fact, part of the reason we met was because they're very interested in my powerwall, but have little experience with lithium.

That said, we truly are on the cusp of a momentous shift in power delivery, and the power companies are going to fight tooth and nail for their business interests, at the great expense of the general public. Regulation will certainly play a key role, as well.
 
To cut down cost on installing I ended up just laying out the panels on the roof (15 degree - near flat) and sitting them on couple of inch blocks of wood to give an air gap underneath for cooling. As long as we do not get a hurricane (last on in the 80's) they should not blow away... I could have bought fewer panels, angled them towards the sun, etc. When I worked out the costing, extra work involved (even with fewer panels), issues like the wind is more likely to catch them and factored in the reduced overall surface area covered it did not make sense to mount them on frames, etc. The main issues included breaking through the roof seal for frame fixings. Depending on latitude the difference in angle of your panels can make a very big difference for winter output, but at the expense of overall capacity in summer due to winter shadow spacing reducing the overall number of panels... work out the difference in output over a year 20 degree angle difference makes and the loss in space the shadow causes..
 
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